{"id":1192,"date":"2024-07-24T12:22:10","date_gmt":"2024-07-24T12:22:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/?p=1192"},"modified":"2024-07-24T12:22:10","modified_gmt":"2024-07-24T12:22:10","slug":"calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion\/","title":{"rendered":"Calculating The Right Bet Size With Kelly Criterion"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without argument, your bet size is crucial. The question is, how do you determine the correct amount to stake? If you do a quick online search, you\u2019ll realize many techniques exist. However, in this post, we\u2019ll focus on the Kelly Criterion \u2014 a strategy many experts confirm is among the best.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Kelly Criterion depends on probability theory. It helps you size your bets to get more returns, whether you lose or win over time. However, many gamblers skip this formula since it can sometimes be complicated. You\u2019ll now see it\u2019s not.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_80 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion\/#How_Does_the_Kelly_Criterion_Work\" >How Does the Kelly Criterion Work?\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion\/#Using_the_Kelly_Criterion_in_Practice\" >Using the Kelly Criterion in Practice<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion\/#Should_You_Use_the_Kelly_Criterion\" >Should You Use the Kelly Criterion?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion\/#Advantages\" >Advantages\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion\/#Disadvantages\" >Disadvantages\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion\/#Bottom_Line\" >Bottom Line<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_Does_the_Kelly_Criterion_Work\"><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How Does the Kelly Criterion Work?\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As we already mentioned, the Kelly Criterion involves probability. So, you\u2019ll be doing some calculations if you want to use it. You\u2019re good to go with basic math skills since the formula isn\u2019t complex. Check it out below:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">f = bp \u2014 q\/b<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From the above expression, the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">f<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> represents the fraction of your bankroll to bet. In other words, that\u2019s the value you want to get. Meanwhile, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">b<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is the net odds. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">p<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">q<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> go hand-in-hand, indicating the probability of winning and losing, respectively.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before you start making any bets, all you have to do is get the values. Then, you plug them into the formula, and you\u2019ll get your <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">f<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. If you wager according to the result, you can expect to win more than you risk over time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Using_the_Kelly_Criterion_in_Practice\"><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using the Kelly Criterion in Practice<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To perfectly understand the Kelly Criterion, we\u2019ll give an example. Let\u2019s say you plan to play at <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/roll-xo.net\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">RollXO Casino<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Here, they double your first deposit, so if you have $500, that leaves you with<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$1,000 bankroll<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">70% chance of winning (30% chance of losing)\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.5 to 1 net odds<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The above means you have $1,000 to bet with, and your chance of winning is 70%. That consequently means the probability of losing is 30%. Also, your net odds are 1.5:1. That is, you win $1.50 for each $1 you bet.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Check out the Kelly Criterion calculation using the values below:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">f = 1.5 x 0.7 \u2014 0.3\/1.5\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">f = 1.05 \u2014 0.3\/1.5\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">f = 0.75\/1.5\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">f = 0.5<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, you have to wager 50% of your bankroll. We earlier specified that the budget is $1,000, which means you\u2019ll stake $500 on each bet. It\u2019s natural to consider half of your bankroll as high. However, it makes sense, giving the high 70% chance of winning. Those are the core factors the Kelly Criterion takes into consideration. You get to maximize your odds of scoring wins from bets.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Should_You_Use_the_Kelly_Criterion\"><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Should You Use the Kelly Criterion?<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now, you know precisely how the Kelly Criterion works in getting an ideal bet size. Is it right to use? You\u2019ll have to consider multiple aspects to arrive at a valid answer. The best thing to do is weigh the upsides and downsides to make the right decision. Let\u2019s discuss both.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Advantages\"><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Advantages\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">First, we\u2019ll consider the advantages. Like any other technique for sizing bets, The Kelly Criterion ensures maximum long-term profits. You may not witness the additions to your bankroll in short spells. However, if you play for an extended period, you\u2019ll record significant gains. It may be especially relevant to slot games with a small minimum bet size. In many PlayTech\u2019s slots, for example, the minimum bet is just $0.1 (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/slotspeak.com\/playtech\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">click here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to learn more). Games like this are a good fit for this strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Furthermore, using the Kelly Criterion helps you stay disciplined. That\u2019s valid since you know the right amount to stake at any session. You won\u2019t need to increase or reduce your bet following randomly to win or cut losses. Above all, you\u2019ll avoid emotional betting.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Disadvantages\"><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Disadvantages\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The main issue with The Kelly Criterion is that it requires accurate estimates. You&#8217;ll get the wrong result if you don\u2019t use the correct values. Of course, following an incorrect bet size can lead to losses over time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s easy to know your bankroll and net odds. However, determining the accurate chance of winning is challenging \u2014 sometimes impossible. If you\u2019re playing casino games like slots, you can use the RTP as a benchmark. But it\u2019s sometimes not dependable as the provider may publish an incorrect percentage. Things are more manageable when playing table games like blackjack and roulette because they have established probabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bottom_Line\"><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bottom Line<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So far, you\u2019ll agree that the Kelly Criterion is not difficult to calculate. The formula has only three parameters \u2014 b, p, and q. Once you get the final percentage, multiply it by your bankroll to know how much to bet. The only downside is that getting the correct values for the parameters can be tricky. If you can get accurate values for all entries in the Kelly Criterion formula, the technique can help in the long run.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Without argument, your bet size is crucial. The question is, how do you determine the correct amount to stake? If you do a quick online search, you\u2019ll realize many techniques exist. However, in this post, we\u2019ll focus on the Kelly Criterion \u2014 a strategy many experts confirm is among the best.\u00a0 The Kelly Criterion depends &#8230; <a title=\"Calculating The Right Bet Size With Kelly Criterion\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/knowledgewap.org\/blog\/calculating-the-right-bet-size-with-kelly-criterion\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Calculating The Right Bet Size With Kelly Criterion\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":1193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-misc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Kelly Criterion: How It Works For Sizing Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Learn how to use the popular Kelly Criterion to know the perfect amount to wager when gambling. 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